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Ian Ayres

Super Crunchers

We all know that computers are becoming ubiquitous in our society. But you may not realise that they are doing more than just assisting current decision processes. In Super Crunchers Ian Ayres shows how much they are bringing about a huge change in the way decisions are made. The book starts with an example of how the future value of wine may be predicted using a simple formula based on the nature of the growing season - and how this is often beating the expert opinion. Now that so much data is available, the number crunching approach is taking hold in many important areas of our life, such as medicine and government as well as most large businesses.

Naturally the experts resist their place being usurped by a machine, but Ayres shows that often the supposed expert intuition is just no match for data crunching. I felt however, that Ayres could have given more consideration to the other problems of a number crunching approach. For instance, he shows how simple metrics might be used to predict which books will be bestsellers, but even before the use of computers many in the publishing industry deplored the tendency towards a few large firms fighting over a few bestsellers. And Ayres is too dismissive of the idea that as people get to know the algorithms they will try to 'cheat the system' - something against which Google have to fight a continuous battle. But although the book is lacking in such analysis, it's certainly worth reading in order to be prepared for the ever increasing involvement of such data crunching in our lives.

Amazon.com info

Hardcover 272 pages
ISBN: 0553805401
Salesrank: 101665
Weight:1 lbs

Published: 2007 Bantam

Amazon price $16.50

Marketplace:New from $9.86:Used from $5.46

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Amazon.co.uk info

Hardcover 272 pages
ISBN: 0719564638
Salesrank: 105034
Weight:1.19 lbs

Published: 2007 John Murray

Amazon price £9.44

Marketplace:New from £0.01:Used from £0.01

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Amazon.ca info

Hardcover 272 pages
ISBN: 0553805401
Salesrank: 43294
Weight:1 lbs

Published: 2007 Bantam

Amazon price CDN$ 20.16

Marketplace:New from CDN$ 16.51:Used from CDN$ 14.42

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Product Description
Why would a casino try and stop you from losing? How can a mathematical formula find your future spouse? Would you know if a statistical analysis blackballed you from a job you wanted? Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us. Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.

Product Description

Why would a casino try and stop you from losing? How can a mathematical formula find your future spouse? Would you know if a statistical analysis blackballed you from a job you wanted?

Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us.

Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.

Good book if you're the right audience ****
Despite a few college courses, I know little about statistics, and this book helped me think about how I should apply it more in my career. I agree with other reviewers, that it doesn't need to be this long, and it doesn't really have any deep discussions, or how-to ideas--it's more like a motivational book for using statistics to make decisions. Personally, I think that's what a lot of managers need to read. If you disagree, then maybe you need something more technical. I enjoyed learning about how law experts and doctors should be able to use statistics more in their professions, and it made me think of a way I should use them in mine. I enjoyed this book, and after finishing it, came to Amazon to see how others reviewed it. I am surprised by all the negative reviews. This book was clearly written for the mass market, not for anyone with a statistics background, which is what I think is driving all the negative reviews.

Good book if you're the right audience ****

Despite a few college courses, I know little about statistics, and this book helped me think about how I should apply it more in my career. I agree with other reviewers, that it doesn't need to be this long, and it doesn't really have any deep discussions, or how-to ideas--it's more like a motivational book for using statistics to make decisions. Personally, I think that's what a lot of managers need to read. If you disagree, then maybe you need something more technical.

I enjoyed learning about how law experts and doctors should be able to use statistics more in their professions, and it made me think of a way I should use them in mine.

I enjoyed this book, and after finishing it, came to Amazon to see how others reviewed it. I am surprised by all the negative reviews. This book was clearly written for the mass market, not for anyone with a statistics background, which is what I think is driving all the negative reviews.

Need More Books Like This One *****
This book has enlightened me with information that kept me wanting more. Thanks and keep them coming.

Need More Books Like This One *****

This book has enlightened me with information that kept me wanting more. Thanks and keep them coming.

Big Brother is Watching ****
Big Brother is watching, and he is doing it with computers and mathematical methods. As a result, companies know more about us than ever before. This book explains how the power of computers and sophisticated statistical techniques are helping Big Brother to do it and what it all means. What is really fascinating about this book are the descriptions of how these modern applications of well known quantitative methods significantly affect many aspects of our lives, including sports, wine rating, medicine, government policy making, dating, market research, and many more. Written in a clear, lucid style, this book is a must for anyone who wants to understand how super large data bases and mega computing power are changing our world as we go about our daily lives. Robert E. Levasseur, Ph.D., author of "Practical Statistics"

Big Brother is Watching ****

Big Brother is watching, and he is doing it with computers and mathematical methods. As a result, companies know more about us than ever before. This book explains how the power of computers and sophisticated statistical techniques are helping Big Brother to do it and what it all means.

What is really fascinating about this book are the descriptions of how these modern applications of well known quantitative methods significantly affect many aspects of our lives, including sports, wine rating, medicine, government policy making, dating, market research, and many more.

Written in a clear, lucid style, this book is a must for anyone who wants to understand how super large data bases and mega computing power are changing our world as we go about our daily lives.

Robert E. Levasseur, Ph.D., author of "Practical Statistics"

The Way Decisions Are Increasingly Made ****
As we have become a more information-based society, huge databases of information have proliferated. Ian Ayres examines the increasing trend of "Super Crunching", which he defines as using statistics to extract hidden information from large datasets. Super Crunching has repeatedly been found to make decisions superior to more traditional intuition-based decisions in areas as diverse as baseball, health care, and wine production, and has even been used to guess which purchasing decisions customers will make and how certain Supreme Court justices will vote on given cases. Ayres speculates on what role intuition will have in the future, faced as it is with Super Crunching techniques. The book is an interesting look at how number-crunching decisions are made by people, companies, and governments in today's world and how these techniques will be increasingly used in the future.

The Way Decisions Are Increasingly Made ****

As we have become a more information-based society, huge databases of information have proliferated. Ian Ayres examines the increasing trend of "Super Crunching", which he defines as using statistics to extract hidden information from large datasets.

Super Crunching has repeatedly been found to make decisions superior to more traditional intuition-based decisions in areas as diverse as baseball, health care, and wine production, and has even been used to guess which purchasing decisions customers will make and how certain Supreme Court justices will vote on given cases. Ayres speculates on what role intuition will have in the future, faced as it is with Super Crunching techniques.

The book is an interesting look at how number-crunching decisions are made by people, companies, and governments in today's world and how these techniques will be increasingly used in the future.

Evidence based everything ****
The growth of massive databases has created an opportunity to analyze large collections of real world experience to determine what really works. It's application to medical treatments has already provided facinating insight into the effectiveness traditional treatment procedures. In some cases, they are shown to be ineffective. It also helps lead the way to more effective approaches. The author shows how this approach can be applied to many varied applications resulting in evidence based solutions. It is a very interesting exposition on the use of regression analysis and random experiments to provide answers to many difficult problems in a wide range of human endeavor. Many real world examples highlight the use of stastical techniques. He thinks it is the way of the future and after reading the Super Crunchers I am inclined to agree.

Evidence based everything ****

The growth of massive databases has created an opportunity to analyze large collections of real world experience to determine what really works. It's application to medical treatments has already provided facinating insight into the effectiveness traditional treatment procedures. In some cases, they are shown to be ineffective. It also helps lead the way to more effective approaches.

The author shows how this approach can be applied to many varied applications resulting in evidence based solutions. It is a very interesting exposition on the use of regression analysis and random experiments to provide answers to many difficult problems in a wide range of human endeavor. Many real world examples highlight the use of stastical techniques. He thinks it is the way of the future and after reading the Super Crunchers I am inclined to agree.

Does not tell the full story - needs an update! **
This read must have been compelling a couple of years ago. But the 'super crunching' this book advocates - didn't do a good job in predicting the credit crunch. It probably played a role in creating it. The book makes case after case against human intuition - which may work in many instances. Though an updated version of the book - highlighting the role of statistical models in banks lending to sub-prime, credit cards being given to people who can't repay, its failure to predict the decline in home prices - this would allow us to really evaluate the strengths and potential pitfalls of so called Super Crunchers.

Does not tell the full story - needs an update! **

This read must have been compelling a couple of years ago. But the 'super crunching' this book advocates - didn't do a good job in predicting the credit crunch. It probably played a role in creating it. The book makes case after case against human intuition - which may work in many instances. Though an updated version of the book - highlighting the role of statistical models in banks lending to sub-prime, credit cards being given to people who can't repay, its failure to predict the decline in home prices - this would allow us to really evaluate the strengths and potential pitfalls of so called Super Crunchers.

Persuasive ****
This book is not as poor as the previous reviews suggest. It offers a persuasive account of the potential of mass numeric data in coming to better (evidence-based) decisions. The book shows that, on many occasions, the hard data is a better guide than human intuition or even human experience. But it also, quite rightly, points out that numbers are fallible - the outcomes depend on the formulae they are squeezed through, for example. The most annoying aspect of the text is that it is way too long. Like so many other American books of this ilk (e.g. the Tipping Point, Blink, The Paradox of Choice), it is a 'one-idea book' that would have worked just as well as a lengthy article. There is no need to stretch the idea out to fill a whole book.

Persuasive ****

This book is not as poor as the previous reviews suggest. It offers a persuasive account of the potential of mass numeric data in coming to better (evidence-based) decisions. The book shows that, on many occasions, the hard data is a better guide than human intuition or even human experience. But it also, quite rightly, points out that numbers are fallible - the outcomes depend on the formulae they are squeezed through, for example.

The most annoying aspect of the text is that it is way too long. Like so many other American books of this ilk (e.g. the Tipping Point, Blink, The Paradox of Choice), it is a 'one-idea book' that would have worked just as well as a lengthy article. There is no need to stretch the idea out to fill a whole book.

Good concept, poor execution **
The concept was reasonable: to show how statistical analysis was changing the way in which the businesses and governments operated. The author also set out the relevant topics sensibly; chapters covered such issues as why this is occurring now, random samples, the reaction of experts to such analysis (with an extra focus on the medical profession) and the legal/ moral issues that this type of analysis raises. The trouble with this book is that the writing style is too simplistic. It's not obvious whether this is the fault of the editor or the author or a combination of the two. Various examples of data analysis are used without it being clear what point the author is trying to make. The result is that at the end of many chapters it's unclear what the author's intent was. There are two other aspects of the writing which are irritating. First, every person whose work is described in the book is given a brief biography which reads as if they were some form of matinee idol. Secondly, the author uses the opportunity to air some personal professional disputes which for anyone outside the argument is tedious. Overall, it's a book you may buy at an airport to read on a flight and throw away

Good concept, poor execution **

The concept was reasonable: to show how statistical analysis was changing the way in which the businesses and governments operated. The author also set out the relevant topics sensibly; chapters covered such issues as why this is occurring now, random samples, the reaction of experts to such analysis (with an extra focus on the medical profession) and the legal/ moral issues that this type of analysis raises. The trouble with this book is that the writing style is too simplistic. It's not obvious whether this is the fault of the editor or the author or a combination of the two. Various examples of data analysis are used without it being clear what point the author is trying to make. The result is that at the end of many chapters it's unclear what the author's intent was. There are two other aspects of the writing which are irritating. First, every person whose work is described in the book is given a brief biography which reads as if they were some form of matinee idol. Secondly, the author uses the opportunity to air some personal professional disputes which for anyone outside the argument is tedious. Overall, it's a book you may buy at an airport to read on a flight and throw away

overconfident, but worth it ***
What this book does well is to show how valuable numerical information can be if you know how to analyse it properly, and how unreliable human judgment can be compared to what the data can tell us. The examples are well chosen and telling. Where it goes too far is in expressing almost unqualified belief that the number stuff trumps everything else, all the time. Contrary to the title, not everything can be predicted. Specifically, the sudden turns of events, in markets or social behaviour (which are often what we are most interested in) are not predictable on the basis of past patterns. By defintion, surprises are not predictable. And there always has to be a human doing the modelling, working out the dynamics of any set of causal relationships. Sometimes, these people get it wrong. Then it's the old case of "rubbish in, rubbish out." But though he has pushed the argument too far, he is interesting, imaginative and persuasive that the balance could be tipped a little further than it now is, towards making better use of statistical data.

overconfident, but worth it ***

What this book does well is to show how valuable numerical information can be if you know how to analyse it properly, and how unreliable human judgment can be compared to what the data can tell us. The examples are well chosen and telling. Where it goes too far is in expressing almost unqualified belief that the number stuff trumps everything else, all the time. Contrary to the title, not everything can be predicted. Specifically, the sudden turns of events, in markets or social behaviour (which are often what we are most interested in) are not predictable on the basis of past patterns. By defintion, surprises are not predictable. And there always has to be a human doing the modelling, working out the dynamics of any set of causal relationships. Sometimes, these people get it wrong. Then it's the old case of "rubbish in, rubbish out." But though he has pushed the argument too far, he is interesting, imaginative and persuasive that the balance could be tipped a little further than it now is, towards making better use of statistical data.

Anecdotal Assembly *
Tiresome. One lengthy anecdote after the other -- albeit, some of interest. No conceptual depth. Surprising that such work can come from an associate of Yale University. However, just as the author "supercrunched" the choice of the title, he may have used the same approach in order to determine what may best sell to a mass of undiscerning readers.

Anecdotal Assembly *

Tiresome. One lengthy anecdote after the other -- albeit, some of interest. No conceptual depth. Surprising that such work can come from an associate of Yale University. However, just as the author "supercrunched" the choice of the title, he may have used the same approach in order to determine what may best sell to a mass of undiscerning readers.

Inside empirical data-crunching *****
"There are three kinds of lies," said Benjamin Disraeli, "lies, damned lies and statistics." But, like it or not, the world is becoming more quantitative every day and no one can afford to be statistically innumerate. If you live in Excel and use quantitative techniques daily, this may come as no surprise. What may be surprising, even to data-heads, is the extent to which statistical methods are illuminating areas of human life hitherto relegated to "experts." Call it the new age of empiricism or the rise of numerical "super crunchers," but, whatever the name, the trend is real. In this book, Yale law professor and econometrician Ian Ayres provides an unbiased sample of entertaining anecdotes showing how quantitative thinkers are taking over and why the trend is unlikely to abate. The caveat: as the world and its feedback loops get increasingly complex, is regression less useful? If so, Ayers is a bit optimistic. Yet, getAbstract finds that his book, as well as being entertaining and vigorously written, offers a painless review of important statistical ideas that even Disraeli would've found hard to challenge.

Inside empirical data-crunching *****

"There are three kinds of lies," said Benjamin Disraeli, "lies, damned lies and statistics." But, like it or not, the world is becoming more quantitative every day and no one can afford to be statistically innumerate. If you live in Excel and use quantitative techniques daily, this may come as no surprise. What may be surprising, even to data-heads, is the extent to which statistical methods are illuminating areas of human life hitherto relegated to "experts." Call it the new age of empiricism or the rise of numerical "super crunchers," but, whatever the name, the trend is real. In this book, Yale law professor and econometrician Ian Ayres provides an unbiased sample of entertaining anecdotes showing how quantitative thinkers are taking over and why the trend is unlikely to abate. The caveat: as the world and its feedback loops get increasingly complex, is regression less useful? If so, Ayers is a bit optimistic. Yet, getAbstract finds that his book, as well as being entertaining and vigorously written, offers a painless review of important statistical ideas that even Disraeli would've found hard to challenge.

Well done description of the paradigm shift from historical analysis to real-time, prospective number crunching ****
Very timely book, with some very good examples how "super chrunching" is already affecting our lives. Even those familiar with the topic may not realize all the new ways statistical number chrunching are being applied. A thoughtul discussion of some of the key issues. I agree with the author's argument that statistical thinking is of increasing importance for all of us. Although the later portion of the book is probably the weakest, as more practical examples of how to hone your skills would have been helpful. For example, moving backwards and forwards to derive a probability of interest from given data is an important concept - but so is making sure you haven't invalidated key assumptions along the way (e.g. normality?). If so, you risk drawing severly erroneous conclusions, which is the antithesis of proper statistical thinking. A worthwhile read.

Well done description of the paradigm shift from historical analysis to real-time, prospective number crunching ****

Very timely book, with some very good examples how "super chrunching" is already affecting our lives. Even those familiar with the topic may not realize all the new ways statistical number chrunching are being applied. A thoughtul discussion of some of the key issues.

I agree with the author's argument that statistical thinking is of increasing importance for all of us. Although the later portion of the book is probably the weakest, as more practical examples of how to hone your skills would have been helpful. For example, moving backwards and forwards to derive a probability of interest from given data is an important concept - but so is making sure you haven't invalidated key assumptions along the way (e.g. normality?). If so, you risk drawing severly erroneous conclusions, which is the antithesis of proper statistical thinking.

A worthwhile read.

A Well-Written Eye-Opener *****
The information presented in this book is truly astounding. But when one thinks about it, computers have become so fast and powerful that the manipulation of gigantic databases should come as no surprise - yet a few years ago, this was the subject of science fiction. But what does this mean for the average person? The author of this book very ably explains this by giving many examples of what can now be done with these huge databases. His main thesis is that the statistical analysis of a large amount of data can be used to make predictions that are more accurate than those of human experts who base their opinions on experience and intuition. But in addition, accurate predictions can be made about the behavior, e.g., shopping habits, of particular individuals, once some basic data specific to these individuals is entered into a computer. In other words, these computers can "know" more about us than we know about ourselves! I find this absolutely fascinating. The book is written in a style that is very clear and friendly yet authoritative. It should be of great interest to absolutely everyone.

A Well-Written Eye-Opener *****

The information presented in this book is truly astounding. But when one thinks about it, computers have become so fast and powerful that the manipulation of gigantic databases should come as no surprise - yet a few years ago, this was the subject of science fiction. But what does this mean for the average person? The author of this book very ably explains this by giving many examples of what can now be done with these huge databases. His main thesis is that the statistical analysis of a large amount of data can be used to make predictions that are more accurate than those of human experts who base their opinions on experience and intuition. But in addition, accurate predictions can be made about the behavior, e.g., shopping habits, of particular individuals, once some basic data specific to these individuals is entered into a computer. In other words, these computers can "know" more about us than we know about ourselves! I find this absolutely fascinating. The book is written in a style that is very clear and friendly yet authoritative. It should be of great interest to absolutely everyone.